Hyperliquid, the crypto exchange best known for perpetual futures, now has a prediction market business that is growing fast. Its HIP-4 “outcome markets” posted their highest daily volumes on 12 and 13 November, right after Outcome, the app that lists almost all of these markets, released version 3 of its site on 12 November. On 13 November Outcome wrote on X that users had pushed volume to a daily all-time high of “$22,950,000 in a single day”.
The figure needs context. Outcome did not say how it counts. Hyperliquid reports trading volume separately for each side of a market, and tallies that add both sides come out roughly twice as high as counts that record each trade once. DeFiLlama, which tracks HIP-4 at protocol level, shows $9.74 million on 12 November and $9.84 million on 13 November, the two biggest days since its series began on 2 May.
What HIP-4 is
According to Hyperliquid’s documentation, HIP-4 outcomes are “fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range”. Each market has two tokens, usually Yes and No, which pay out between 0 and 1 USDC at settlement. There is no leverage and no liquidation. Hyperliquid itself runs recurring daily price markets, on 14 November for Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and its own HYPE token. Other teams, called deployers, write the rules for their own markets and settle them. Outcome lists its markets under the venue code “out”.
Key facts
Platform: Hyperliquid (HyperCore), HIP-4 outcome markets, settled in USDC.
Deployers on 14 November: four, with venue codes out, skew, txyz and fox, plus Hyperliquid’s own recurring markets.
Outcome v3: released 12 November; Outcome claims a $22.95 million day.
Record days (DeFiLlama): $9.74 million (12 November), $9.84 million (13 November).
Volume 1–13 November: $90.5 million, against $74.6 million in all of October.
Our numbers
We pulled DeFiLlama’s daily volume for Hyperliquid Outcomes, Polymarket and Kalshi on 14 November. From May to October, HIP-4 volume held at about 1% of Polymarket’s each month (1.2% in May, 1.2% in October), with a dip to 0.3% in August. From 1 to 13 November it reached 3.7%: $90.5 million against $2.44 billion. Average daily HIP-4 volume rose from $2.4 million in October to $7.0 million in November, almost three times as much. On 13 November alone, HIP-4 was 5.9% of Polymarket’s volume and 1.6% of Kalshi’s.
We also read Hyperliquid’s public market list at 17:30 CET on 14 November. It had 295 outcomes. Markets under Outcome’s “out” code took 99.1% of the 24-hour volume reported by the exchange, and sports templates (game winners, matches, draws and tournament winners) took 88%. Third-party trackers show the same picture: HIP4Markets counts Outcome at 98% of the past week’s volume.
Why it matters for GambleFi
Polymarket is losing share to Kalshi and is rebuilding its order book to compete on speed. HIP-4 adds another onchain rival with deep crypto liquidity behind it, like Jupiter’s prediction product on Solana. But it is still small: November’s HIP-4 total is about 1% of Kalshi’s, and nearly all of it depends on one deployer listing mostly sports. Hyperliquid is not a CFTC-registered exchange, so the state-versus-CFTC court fights in the US do not cover it, and it faces the same open question about who may legally offer sports bets onchain as other onchain books such as SX Bet have faced. For the bigger picture, see our count of 41 prediction market venues. Volume figures come from third-party trackers and the operators themselves and may be revised. This is a news summary, not investment advice. The GambleFi FAQ explains how prediction markets differ from crypto casinos.