On 9 October 2026 the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced two coordinated rulemakings that redraw the line between regulated derivatives and gambling. One proposal would expressly define event contracts, including those based on sports, politics, culture and weather, as “swaps”. A separate interim final rule excludes casino-style gambling products, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, from that definition.
Key Takeaways:
Proposed rule (NPRM): “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ – Inclusions”, CFTC Release 9310-26, RIN 3038-AF82. Comments are due 30 days after publication in the Federal Register.
Interim final rule (IFR): “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ to Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products”, CFTC Release 9309-26, RIN 3038-AF81. Effective on publication in the Federal Register, with a 30-day comment period.
Announced: 9 October 2026. As of 15 October 2026, neither document had been published in the Federal Register.
Comments are submitted via Regulations.gov.
Primary sources: CFTC Release 9310-26, CFTC Release 9309-26, IFR text (PDF).
What the CFTC proposes
The proposal would add event contracts to the Commission’s regulatory definition of “swap” in 17 CFR Part 1. The CFTC says these contracts are “commonly known to the trade as swaps” and that the rule is meant to resolve any ambiguity about them. “Americans use event contracts to hedge risks, speculate, and provide the public with information about the outcome of future events,” Chairman Michael S. Selig said. He called them commodity derivatives “squarely within the CFTC’s regulatory remit” and “within the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction”.
The proposal responds to split court rulings. According to the CFTC text, the Third Circuit held that sports event contracts traded on a CFTC-licensed exchange fit the statutory swap definition. In August 2026 the Ninth Circuit concluded that such contracts are likely not swaps; a petition for rehearing en banc has been filed in that case.
What the interim rule excludes
The interim final rule codifies what the CFTC calls its longstanding position that casino-style gambling products are not swaps and fall outside its jurisdiction. “Casino-style gambling products are not derivatives,” Selig said. The Commission describes the rule as clarifying the boundary between its oversight of derivatives markets and State and Tribal jurisdiction over casino-style gambling.
What it means for prediction markets and GambleFi
For prediction markets, the proposal would put event contracts listed on CFTC-registered exchanges more firmly under federal derivatives law, which is the basis exchanges have used to argue that state gambling rules do not apply to them. If finalised, it would strengthen that position, although the Ninth Circuit dispute shows the question is not settled in court.
For GambleFi, the two rules sharpen a distinction many crypto projects blur. Event contracts on an exchange registered with the CFTC are treated as derivatives. Sportsbook-style betting and casino games stay with state and tribal gambling regulators. Projects offering crypto casino games or sports betting gain no federal derivatives status from these rules, and onchain prediction markets that are not registered with the CFTC are not made lawful by them.
What happens next
Both documents still have to be published in the Federal Register. Once they are, the interim rule takes effect immediately, and the 30-day comment windows for both open on Regulations.gov. The CFTC can then revise the interim rule and decide whether to finalise the proposal. Pending court cases, including the Ninth Circuit rehearing petition, may also shape how the rules are applied.
This article is for information only and is not legal or financial advice.