Eight iGaming tokens (also called GambleFi tokens) with a full year of daily prices moved only loosely with Bitcoin between 27 October 2025 and 26 October 2026: the correlation of their daily returns with Bitcoin runs from 0.07 for BFG to 0.54 for SolCasino (SCS), and the median is 0.23. Ethereum, calculated the same way, is 0.91. A correlation of 1 would mean a token moves with Bitcoin every day, and 0 that its moves are unrelated. We calculated it from daily prices on CoinGecko and cross-checked the pattern against DefiLlama’s price history.
Who moves with Bitcoin, and who does not
Moon Roll (MRC) is at 0.50 and TG.Casino (TGC) at 0.38; Rollbit (RLB) is at 0.25, BC at 0.21, RAIN at 0.18, Shuffle (SHFL) at 0.09 and BFG at 0.07. For SHFL and BFG the figure is within what chance alone could produce over 364 observations, so we read it as no measurable link. The same tokens also behaved very differently from Bitcoin over the year: Bitcoin fell 29.9% and Ethereum 44.1%, while BC rose 301%, RAIN 154%, RLB 14% and SHFL 12%, SCS was roughly flat (-2%) and TGC, MRC and BFG fell 27%, 62% and 71% (CoinGecko, 26 October).
Volatility and the weekly check
Annualised volatility of daily returns was 44% for Bitcoin and 61% for Ethereum, against 39% for BFG, 51% for SCS, 59% for RLB, 79% for BC, 98% for SHFL, 110% for MRC, 118% for RAIN and 120% for TGC. On weekly returns the picture is similar but noisier: the median correlation is 0.11 on CoinGecko prices and 0.25 on DefiLlama’s weekly series, with SCS, MRC and TGC highest and BFG lowest in both. With only 52 weekly observations, anything below about 0.28 cannot be told apart from zero.
Key facts
Source: CoinGecko daily price history (365 daily prices, 27 October 2025 to 26 October 2026, pulled 12:44 UTC), log returns, Pearson correlation with Bitcoin; price changes are first to last daily price; DefiLlama coins API weekly prices as a cross-check.
Daily correlation with Bitcoin: SCS 0.54, MRC 0.50, TGC 0.38, RLB 0.25, BC 0.21, RAIN 0.18, SHFL 0.09, BFG 0.07; median 0.23; Ethereum 0.91.
Weekly (52 returns): median 0.11 (CoinGecko) and 0.25 (DefiLlama); Ethereum 0.95 and 0.96.
Volatility (annualised, daily): Bitcoin 44%, Ethereum 61%; tokens 39% to 120%.
Sample: only the eight tokens with an unbroken year of prices. HUNNY, WSM, BAZED, RDT, WINR, SX and WickedBet were left out because their histories have gaps or isolated price spikes that would distort the result.
Not covered: tokens not on CoinGecko, intraday data, and causes: a correlation shows co-movement, not why.
How to read it
Thinly traded tokens often print stale prices, which pulls measured correlation towards zero even when the underlying link is real, so the low figures for SHFL, BFG and RAIN are an upper bound on independence rather than proof of it. Even so, the result is clear in one respect: these tokens do not behave like Ethereum, which trades almost in step with Bitcoin. Our earlier checks show why that might be, with thin liquidity, burns and buybacks and concentrated holdings each shaping individual prices, but this post does not test those explanations.
Why it matters for GambleFi
An iGaming token is often described as a bet on a casino’s revenue rather than on crypto as a whole, as explained in our game mechanics guide, and low correlation with Bitcoin is consistent with that description without proving it. For where the same tokens stand against their highs, see our all-time-high check, and for the project pages Shuffle, Rollbit, BC.GAME, TG.Casino, SolCasino and Moon Roll. See also the statistics page. This is a data report, not investment advice.